Shane Bieber 2024 Projections, Guardians Player Profile

Originally posted on FanNation Cleveland Baseball Insider
By Tommy Wild | Last updated 2/23/24

Shane Bieber has survived all of the trade rumors during the offseason and he's officially on the Cleveland Guardians roster as spring training gets underway. However, will he be able to return to his Cy Young form or will his injuries from the past few seasons catch up with him?

Welcome to Bieber's "Guardians Player Profile" heading into the 2024 season. This compiles projections from both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference to give fans an idea of how different models are viewing Cleveland's starting pitcher.

Shane Bieber 2024 Projections

	ERA	WHIP	FIP	K/9
2023	3.80	1.234	3.87	7.52
2024 FanGraphs ZIPS	3.52	/	3.87	9.16
2024 Baseball Ref Projections	3.56	1.188	/	8.8

There are some slight differences in these models, but they overall seem to agree on what Bieber's production will look like in 2024.

Looking at the ERA, both models forecast that Bieber will not turn the clock back to 2020 when he allowed just one run per nine innings. His 2024 ERA could look very similar to what it was over the last two seasons. These models do think that Bieber could generate more strikeouts then in the past years which would be a welcome change.

One of Bieber's biggest problems last season was facing batters the third time through the order. Opposing hitters had a batting average of .224 when they saw him the first two times in a game. However, that batting average spiked to .311 during the third plate appearance in the game. Over half of the runs Bieber allowed also came during the third time through.

Whether it be fatigue from Bieber or hitters picking up on something as the game goes on, this is something that cannot continue to be an issue in 2024.

Why should Guardians fans be optimistic about Bieber's upcoming season? There's one workout that he did over the offseason signaling he could be returning to form. Bieber spent time at Driveline and his results showed an uptick in velocity and the vertical break and his curveball rejuvenated.

The biggest question mark with Biber is something that no computer model can predict. That's whether or not he'll stay healthy. Cleveland's starting pitcher missed half of the 2023 season and almost all of the 2021 season with separate should and elbow injuries.

As long as Bieber can stay healthy, he's going to help

This article first appeared on FanNation Cleveland Baseball Insider and was syndicated with permission.

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